Recently, a mentee asked me about their career path. They’d been a strong individual contributor for five years and were eyeing a move into management. “What do you think my chances are?” they asked.
I paused before answering. Not because I doubted their abilities—they’d be a great manager. But because the math has changed.
Here’s the uncomfortable truth: tech managers aren’t going away, but there are going to be a lot fewer of them.
The Skills Stay, The Seats Don’t
The people skills that make managers valuable—mentoring someone through a tough personal situation, resolving team conflicts, building culture, setting strategic direction—those aren’t going anywhere. AI can’t replicate genuine empathy. It can’t navigate the messy politics of getting three teams to work together on a cross-functional project.
But here’s the thing: organizations need fewer managers than they used to.
When I started managing teams twenty years ago, the standard ratio was about one manager for every six to eight engineers. That ratio was based partly on coordination overhead. Someone needed to track sprint progress, identify blockers, coordinate schedules, make sure information flowed between teams.
AI is handling a lot of that now.
Developers using AI tools ship features faster. Designers iterate more quickly. Data scientists analyze in minutes what used to take days. More output per person means fewer people needed for the same goals.
Which means fewer managers.
Each manager can now handle more direct reports. The administrative work that consumed management time—status tracking, blocker identification, decision documentation—is increasingly automated. With better async communication tools and AI-generated summaries, one manager can effectively oversee twelve or fifteen people instead of six or eight.
Organizations are also discovering they can flatten their hierarchies. The information asymmetry that required multiple management layers is shrinking. That mid-level management layer between team leads and directors? It’s getting thinner.
The Math Gets Harder
For ambitious ICs eyeing that first management role, and for managers hoping to climb to senior leadership, this creates a difficult reality.
The path used to be predictable. You’re a talented engineer. Five to seven years in, a management opportunity emerges. Then a clear progression: team lead to engineering manager to senior manager to director to VP. The ratios were stable.
Now? That team of eight with one manager might be twelve people with one manager. That organization that needed three engineering managers might need two. Each level up becomes more competitive, not because the job requirements changed, but because there are simply fewer positions available. I’ve seen this in my own career.
This is particularly frustrating because the skills that make someone a great IC don’t automatically translate to management. You invest time developing management capabilities—taking on mentoring, leading cross-team initiatives, learning to give difficult feedback. And the opportunity might never materialize.
Not because you’re not good enough. Because there aren’t enough seats.
So What Do You Do?
If you’re in management or hoping to get there, here’s what I’d recommend:
Focus on what AI can’t do. The managers who thrive will excel at the fundamentally human parts of the job. Emotional intelligence. Mentorship. Developing talent. These become even more valuable when everything else is automated.
Get comfortable with larger teams. If you can only manage six people effectively, you’re going to struggle. The future belongs to managers who can lead fifteen to twenty people without losing touch.
Think sideways, not just up. With fewer rungs on the ladder, career growth increasingly comes from lateral moves. Different types of teams. Different technical domains. Different organizational challenges. Build breadth.
Stay technical. The divide between management and hands-on technical work is blurring. Managers who can still write code, review architecture, debug production issues when needed—they’ll have an edge in leaner organizations.
Learn to influence without authority. As hierarchies flatten, you need to drive outcomes through influence rather than position. This is a skill worth developing whether you’re a manager or not.
The Honest Conversation
Let me say up front: companies need to be more honest about this.
If management opportunities are scarcer, help ICs build fulfilling careers that don’t depend on eventually managing people. Create genuine technical leadership roles—not just principal engineer titles with slightly higher pay—with compensation and prestige that truly rival management tracks.
For individuals, the calculation changes. It’s not just “do I want to manage people?” It’s “what are my realistic odds of advancing in management, and what’s my plan B?”
The old advice that everyone should try management at some point in their career? That may need rethinking.
None of this means tech managers are becoming obsolete.
We absolutely need skilled people leaders. Managing in an AI-augmented environment may require even more sophisticated skills than before. When your team is moving faster, when decisions compound more quickly, when organizational complexity is higher—good management matters more, not less.
But the structure of management as a career path is fundamentally shifting.
When I told my mentee all this, they asked, “So should I still try for it?”
“Yes,” I said. “But go in with your eyes open. Be the best IC you can be. Develop those management skills. Take the opportunity if it comes. Just don’t count on it coming. And don’t count on advancing quickly once you’re there.”
The tech industry has always embraced creative destruction when it comes to technologies and products. We celebrate when a new approach makes the old way obsolete. Now we need to bring that same clear-eyed perspective to how we think about management careers.
Being essential and being numerous aren’t the same thing.
The question isn’t whether we’ll need great tech managers. We will. The question is whether we’re prepared for a world where management excellence is more crucial than ever, but opportunities to practice it are increasingly rare.